The Bear's Lair: The best peace conference of all

September 15, 2014

The bicentenary of the Congress of Vienna, organized to settle the questions outstanding from the 22-year Napoleonic Wars, is a slightly uncertain date. The Congress itself opened officially on October 1, 1814, and the Final Act was signed on June 9, 1815. But on the other hand, the British Foreign Secretary Robert, Lord Castlereagh, arrived in Vienna on September 13, 1814, and the official bicentenary conference (in Vienna, naturally) opens September 17. So this seems as good a week as any to celebrate the conference that (because the 1919 Treaty of Versailles was a failure and there was no peace conference after World War II) was effectively the foundation of the global system we inhabit today. It established a number of principles of international governance, some of which we have kept and others that we would do well to re-apply."

The Bear's Lair: The death spiral of capitalism

September 8, 2014

No less than six sovereign borrowers are now paying negative nominal interest rates on their 2-year borrowing in euros. In other words, they are making money by going into debt. In real terms, medium-term U.S. TIPS and British index-linked gilts have had negative interest rates for several years. Contrary to the views of the happy Keynesians around us, this is very dangerous indeed. If negative interest rates were to persist, the world's stock of capital would eventually disappear. Without capital, we'd be back up the trees.

The Bear's Lair: Where's the growth going to come from?

September 1, 2014

"We wanted flying cars, and they gave us 140 characters," said venture capitalist Peter Thiel in 2011. He put his finger on a central dilemma of the New Economy: its innovations can make money (usually through redirecting advertising sales), but they add little or nothing to the overall stock of human knowledge or long-term happiness. Professor Robert Gordon postulated last year that we may have come to the end of the era of perpetual growth. His theory looked foolishly pessimistic, but as the current sluggish expansion limps on, it begins to look more plausible.

The Bear's Lair: Are we better off than in 2000?

August 25, 2014

The NASDAQ Composite Stock Index this week broke out to 14-year highs, reaching levels not seen since March 2000. It came within 10% of its all-time closing peak of 5,048.62 on March 10 of that year (by the end of that month it was already below current levels.) At that time I thought, along with many commentators, that absent major inflation we would not see that NASDAQ level again in our lifetimes, unlike the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices. It is thus worth pondering why the index had reached such nosebleed levels again, and what about today's environment might justify higher valuations than in 2000.

The Bear's Lair: The emerging markets picture darkens

August 18, 2014

Ever since the fall of Communism and the rise of the Internet, future growth has appeared to lie in emerging markets. Modern communications have made it much easier for multinationals to run international supply chains that take advantage of their abundant resources and cheap labor, while emerging markets people have become far more connected to the world economy, to their great advantage. Yet just as globalization itself has begun to reverse, as I discussed last week, so the era of emerging markets emergence may be coming to a close—at least for the next decade or so.

The Bear's Lair: Has the globalization clock gone Bolivian?

August 11, 2014

Fifteen years ago, it appeared that globalization was the most important trend of our time, and was irreversible. Since then, the Doha round of trade talks has been stalled for years and even the modest progress trumpeted last December has been blocked by India, home of a new government supposedly dedicated to the free market. Has the globalization clock, like that on the Bolivian Congress, gone into reverse? And does this have deeper implications for the time-direction of the world economy in general?

The Bear's Lair: Scotland's too small but Britain's just fine alone

August 4, 2014

As an instinctive opponent of Scottish independence but supporter of Britain leaving the EU, I have to face an epistemological reality: the two positions are at first sight inconsistent with each other. As a rational man, I find that disquieting, so I thought I'd look at the economic effects of both moves and determine whether, economically at least, my instincts were right or whether ethnic sentimentality had overwhelmed me.

The Bear's Lair: Is business a force for free markets?

July 28, 2014


Traditionally, business was the most important political backer of free markets, which made sense because business needs markets in order to exist at all. However, in the last generation, the views of business, as expressed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other outlets, have increasingly diverged from the free-market ideal. As crony capitalist ideas have come to dominate business thinking, so crony capitalism itself has come to dominate the U.S. economy, with dire results for productivity growth and the living standards of Americans.

The Bear's Lair: World War I is still damaging us today

July 21, 2014

A fascinating new book, "Archduke Franz Ferdinand Lives!: A World Without World War I," by Richard Ned Lebow (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014) looks at history's likely trajectory if the Sarajevo assassin Gavrilo Princip had missed. He concludes that, while much would be changed, we would at best be only modestly better off. However, Lebow is not an economist and he misses two enormous economic factors that would almost certainly be different in a world without World War I. His "worst-world" scenario might have derailed us, but absent that, 2014 without World War I would probably enjoy much greater prosperity than today's real world.

The Bear's Lair: Technology appears to be wrecking markets

July 14, 2014

The New York Attorney General's lawsuit against Barclays' dark pool is yet another example of banks' increasing resemblance to asbestos manufacturers. But it also reflects an uncomfortable truth: Whether through "fast trading," through the new area of "crypto-currencies" or through the increasing frailty of bank and corporate security systems, technology is transforming previously well-understood markets into insider-dominated scams. The implications for the future of a free economy are dire indeed.

The Bear's Lair: Is finance developing asbestos-like legal risk?

July 7, 2014

The French bank BNP Paribas is about to be fined $9-$10 billion for doing business with Iran, a country with which the U.S. is finding common ground in Iraq. Since 2008, the U.S. and the trial bar have obtained fines and settlements from global banks totaling $88 billion (as of early June.) Now medium-sized U.S. banks such as Sun Trust are being zapped with fines—$968 million to settle claims over its mortgage practices.

The Bear's Lair: What productivity numbers tell us

June 30, 2014

Nonfarm business productivity fell by 3.2% in the first quarter of 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' revised data. Most commentators have rather ignored this number. You expect productivity figures to be bad when GDP drops unexpectedly, as it did in the first quarter. After all, the last such bad number was in the first quarter of 2008, the outset of the Great Recession, and the one prior to that was in 1990, when that recession hit unexpectedly. Still, in this expansion, output numbers have been much weaker than employment numbers as productivity has stagnated. But then, in a period of such massive malinvestment, to use the Austrian economists' term, that's what you'd expect.

The Bear's Lair: China may soon take giant step backwards

June 23, 2014


Eight years ago, the accountants Ernst and Young got in trouble with the Chinese authorities for estimating the bad debts in the Chinese banking system at $911 billion. It was especially tactless in that the major Chinese banks were mostly within months of launching IPOs in the international markets. Since then, the Chinese bad-loan problem has been swept under the rug, and we have had to make do with guesses about its scale.

The Bear's Lair: Systemic risk is worse now than in 2008

June 16, 2014



Since the crash of 2008, huge attention has been paid by regulators to systemic risk, the risk that some event will cause the crash of the entire banking system, not just of an individual bank. Tens of thousands of pages of financial regulations have been written, and almost as many thousands of speeches have been bloviated, about how we now understand the dangers of “too big to fail” and therefore a crash such as occurred in 2008 can never happen again.

The Bear's Lair: Bad Times breed bad ideas

June 9, 2014

Good times tend to be relatively infertile of new economic ideas. Even radical economists, grinding their teeth at the apparent success of the market, don't want to be accused of killing the golden-egg-laying goose.

The Bear's Lair: The coming bond market meltdown

June 2, 2014

Extreme policies produce extreme attitudes among investors. Now, the nearly six years of zero interest rate policies—accompanied by quantitative easing—that we have seen in most Western economies are producing such an extreme attitude in the world's bond markets.

The Bear's Lair: Europe's cost bloat makes its future gloomy

May 26, 2014

When I wrote two years ago that the eurozone resembled the Hindenburg approaching the docking mast at Lakehurst, New Jersey, Euroskeptics cheered and only those committed to the worst features of Europhilia suggested I had underestimated Europe's capacity for recovery.

The Bear's Lair: The most important job in the world

May 19, 2014

This column is being written before final Indian election results are available, let alone a government being selected. However, if exit polls are confirmed and Narenda Modi has won a majority that allows him to govern for five years, then he has potentially the most important job in the world.

The Bear's Lair: Economics is a science with partial answers

May 12, 2014

Nobel Prize-winning (1992) economist Gary Becker, who died last weekend, extended economic theory into areas such as racism, crime and family formation, in which it hadn't been thought relevant. Critics, whether of religious or other persuasions, complained that Becker's analysis dehumanized us by leaving out many other factors that were of equal or greater importance.

The Bear's Lair: Small is not just beautiful, but essential

May 5, 2014

It is becoming increasingly clear that size, in government and business, was a fetish of the early and middle 20th century, caused by the peculiar technological capabilities of that period. Humanity had gained access to enormous power sources, so production could be aggregated into enormous units, but we did not yet have the informational capabilities to manage those units in a sophisticated manner.


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