The Bear's Lair: Where's the link to inflation broken?

April 21, 2014

Monetary economists around 2009-10 were sure of one thing: the Fed's unprecedented creation of "narrow money" in the form of bank reserves would show up fairly quickly in a burst of inflation. Clearly, they were wrong.


Automatic Stabilizer?

April 18, 2014

Yellen comforts New York - and the Bulls.

The Bear's Lair: The promise of deflation

April 14, 2014

The American Enterprise Institute has now joined much of the Federal Reserve, Christine Lagarde of the IMF and the commentariat in warning of the imminence of deflation and the dire consequences that would ensue from even a mild decline in prices.

Financial Stability

April 11, 2014

Selling is starting to get serious.

The Bear's Lair: The ultimate in foolish leverage

April 7, 2014

The Financial Times revealed this week that trades in index credit default swap (CDS) options had managed to avoid being listed on exchanges, with all the transparency requirements that brings, instead being allowed to continue trading on an over-the-counter basis.

HFT, Rigged Markets and The Man

April 4, 2014

Initial indications of greed giving way to fear.

The Bear's Lair: Ending Bernankeism will reduce inequality

March 31, 2014

Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" has received rave reviews among the sort of commentators who are looking always for reasons to dump capitalism in the dustbin of history and resuscitate the Marxism they enjoyed in college (there are a LOT of these people).

QE, Uncertainty and CPI

March 28, 2014

Equity market internals have turned increasingly unsettled.

Top Ten Signs Precious Metals Stocks May Have Seen A Bottom

March 25, 2014

By Lila Murphy

Greetings readers.  It’s been a while since I have written in this space as I have mostly believed that I didn’t have much to say that had not already been said about the precious metals space and how positively dismal things had become.

The Bear's Lair: London won't get its primacy back

March 24, 2014

The Global Financial Center Index, released last week, showed that New York had supplanted London as the world's premier financial center, albeit by a tiny margin of two points out of 1,000.

April/May/June Dynamic?

March 21, 2014

 Putin takes Crimea, China devalues and Yellen has a shaky debut.

The Bear's Lair: Abenomics is heading for a crack-up

March 17, 2014

Japan and Abe could learn from postwar Britain

A "Truman Show" World

March 14, 2014

Ukraine and China pose clear and present danger to global markets.

The Bear's Lair: Tail risks are the ones to watch

March 10, 2014

In a piece "Dinosaur tail risks" published on Jan. 27, I discussed the various unlikely things that could go wrong with the world economy, mentioning well into the second page the faint possibility of a global war, since the global geopolitical system appeared as fragile as that governing before 1914.

Q4 2013 "Flow of Funds" and Geopolitical

March 7, 2014

Ominous geopolitical meets exuberant markets.

The Bear's Lair: Gold is libertarian, cyberspace isn't

March 3, 2014

Assessing the sustainability of Bitcoin amid recent controversy.


February 28, 2014

Developments in China and the Ukraine weren't enough to restrain the exuberant bulls.

The Bear's Lair: Back to a Downton Abbey economy!

February 24, 2014

Larry Summers, writing in the Financial Times last week, deplored the recent progression by the U.S. toward a "Downton Abbey economy" of extreme inequality.

Curriencies, Carry Trades, Fat Pigs and Pythons

February 21, 2014

Equities are right back to near record highs - yet something just doesn't feel right.

The Bear's Lair: Evading the welfare trap

February 17, 2014

The Congressional Budget Office's latest budget projections, released last week, are that an estimated 2.5 million people will leave the job market as a result of Obamacare.

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