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The Bear's Lair: Fed policy makes spendthrifts of us all

September 29, 2014

Last week's inflation figures showed that the Federal Reserve's over-expansionary monetary policy wasn't revealing itself in inflation. But that doesn't mean it's doing no damage.

What We Know

September 26, 2014

Heightened global market instability has began to be transmitted to U.S. securities markets.

The Bear's Lair: Get on with it!

September 22, 2014

The Federal Reserve last Wednesday did not even remove the "considerable period" from its language about when it might start raising interest rates, thus delaying the likely start of rate rises even further than expected. This repeats its mistake of 2004-06, when it raised the federal funds rate at only one-quarter of a percent per meeting, undertaking 17 such tiny rate increases over a two-year period.

Only for Wonks

September 19, 2014

A week of really interesting market action and a new Z.1 "flow of funds" report - all overshadowed by Alibaba.

The Bear's Lair: The best peace conference of all

September 15, 2014

The bicentenary of the Congress of Vienna, organized to settle the questions outstanding from the 22-year Napoleonic Wars, is a slightly uncertain date. The Congress itself opened officially on October 1, 1814, and the Final Act was signed on June 9, 1815. But on the other hand, the British Foreign Secretary Robert, Lord Castlereagh, arrived in Vienna on September 13, 1814, and the official bicentenary conference (in Vienna, naturally) opens September 17. So this seems as good a week as any to celebrate the conference that (because the 1919 Treaty of Versailles was a failure and there was no peace conference after World War II) was effectively the foundation of the global system we inhabit today. It established a number of principles of international governance, some of which we have kept and others that we would do well to re-apply."

King Dollar and the Peripheries

September 12, 2014

Things are turning interesting again.


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